YPF Sociedad Anonima Earnings Recaps
Q2 2026
Aug 13, 2026
YPF's shares declined 4.0% following earnings, reflecting investor disappointment with a cautious outlook and the absence of clear near-term catalysts despite solid operational execution and record profitability.
Key takeaways
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $2.8 billion, a record quarterly figure representing a 70% increase over prior highs, driven by higher prices, operational efficiency, and strong market conditions.
- Shale oil production reached 213,000 barrels per day, now comprising 80% of total oil output, continuing the strategic pivot toward unconventional assets.
- Free cash flow was $824 million, contributing to a net leverage reduction to 1.1x, the lowest in over a decade, and liquidity of $2.5 billion, the highest on record.
- The company highlighted a major $25 billion investment project (Loma La Lata Oil) aimed at long-term growth, but its multi-year scale and phased approval process underscore investment risks and delay near-term visibility.
- Despite operational strengths, investors appear wary due to cautious guidance around project timelines and broader market uncertainties limiting upside momentum.
Q1 2026
May 12, 2026
YPF’s Q1 report showed stable market reaction, reflecting an overall performance in line with expectations without notable surprises or disappointments.
Key takeaways
- Revenues reached $4.95 billion, up 9% sequentially and 7% year-over-year, driven by higher international prices and increased refinery throughput.
- Adjusted EBITDA was nearly $1.6 billion with a 32% margin, supported by higher shale oil output and cost improvements in upstream operations.
- Shale oil production rose to 205,000 barrels per day, a 5% sequential increase and 39% growth from a year ago, comprising 76% of total oil production.
- Capital expenditure declined 10% sequentially to nearly $1 billion, with plans to accelerate spending later in the year to meet full-year guidance of $5.5–5.8 billion.
- Free cash flow improved markedly to $871 million, aided by strong operations and $500 million in M&A proceeds, reducing net leverage to 1.57x.
Q3 2025
Nov 12, 2025
YPF delivered solid operational performance in Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA remaining flat year-over-year despite a 12% decline in revenues due to falling international prices; strong gains in shale oil production offset conventional output declines.
Key takeaways
- Revenues decreased to $4.6 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year drop, primarily driven by Brent price contraction.
- Adjusted EBITDA increased over 20% sequentially to approximately $1.4 billion, maintaining profit margins through improved shale production.
- Shale oil production surged by 35% year-on-year to 170,000 barrels per day; preliminary October data indicates further 12% growth.
- Negative free cash flow of $759 million included extraordinary acquisition costs, while pro forma adjustments show a $172 million outflow excluding one-offs.
- Strategic investments continue in unconventional resources, with 70% of CapEx focused on shale development, highlighting operational efficiencies achieved in recent well completions.