Shares declined 4.0% as investors reacted negatively to a cautious outlook on supply disruptions and geopolitical risks intensifying global nitrogen market tightness, signaling concerns over the company’s ability to fully capitalize on elevated pricing amid ongoing uncertainties.

• Adjusted EBITDA of $983 million reflects solid operational execution but is overshadowed by emerging risks.
• Continued near 100% utilization of available ammonia capacity supported by flexible operations, including delayed turnaround to increase urea production.
• Significant supply constraints driven by geopolitical conflicts (Iran, Russia-Ukraine war) and export restrictions limit global nitrogen availability.
• North American assets positioned as “low cost, low risk” compared to fragile first quartile producers exposed to geopolitical risk, implying a structural cost-of-capital advantage.
• Elevated global prices supported by tight supply-demand dynamics but tempered by concerns over reduced consumption in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia due to limited fertilizer availability.