Essex shares fell 4.9% despite raised 2026 guidance, suggesting investors focused on the cautious outlook for 2027 amid economic and labor-market uncertainty, along with the possibility of lower fourth-quarter transaction volume as buyers and sellers adjust to higher Treasury rates. Management pointed to West Coast fundamentals as supportive, but did not provide 2027 company guidance.
- Third-quarter core FFO was $4 per share, $0.01 above the midpoint of guidance; same-property revenue grew 3% year over year.
- Essex raised its full-year same-property revenue growth midpoint by 10 basis points to 2.9%, NOI growth by 20 basis points to 3%, and core FFO midpoint by $0.02.
- Blended rent growth varied by region: Northern California was 7.3%, Seattle 2.1%, and Southern California 0.9%.
- Management cited uncertainty in the broader economy and labor market heading into 2027, while noting expected housing deliveries of about 40 basis points of total housing stock. It also said fourth-quarter West Coast transaction volume could decline as the market adjusts to higher rates.
- Essex closed on a 474-unit East Bay community built in 2022 for more than $200 million, with an expected mid-5% yield. Net debt to EBITDA was 5.4x, with over $1 billion of available liquidity.
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