Ryanair’s shares rose 1.6%, a broadly flat reaction, as higher recent fares and expected capacity restraint offered some support, while lower H1 profits and limited visibility on FY28 earnings tempered the picture. Management cut its FY27 traffic target and said it is too early to provide meaningful FY28 profit guidance.
- H1 profit fell 15% to €2.15 billion; operating costs rose 10% to €7.7 billion, primarily reflecting higher costs on unhedged fuel and supplier compensation.
- H1 traffic increased 6%, but fares fell 4% over the peak summer period. Management attributed the fare pressure partly to consumer hesitancy and later bookings amid the Middle East conflict.
- FY27 traffic guidance was reduced from 216 million to 214 million passengers; winter traffic from November to March is expected to be broadly flat year on year.
- Ryanair says fares have turned upward since early August, with Q3 fares trending modestly ahead of the prior year. However, management cited almost zero Q4 visibility and withheld meaningful FY28 profit guidance.
- Fuel remains a key FY28 risk: 80% of FY27 fuel needs are hedged at $67 a barrel, but management estimates a €2 billion fuel-bill increase next year and says it would take about a 20% fare rise to cover it.
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