Vistra Corp. Q3 2026 Earnings Recap

Vistra’s stock rose 10.6% after the company reported record third-quarter adjusted EBITDA and raised the midpoint of its 2026 guidance range. Investors also got initial 2027 guidance and an improved expected cash-flow contribution from the Cogentrix acquisition.

Key Takeaways

• Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA was approximately **$2.4 billion**, a company record; thermal fleet commercial availability approached **95%**.
• Vistra narrowed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to **$7.1 billion–$7.5 billion** and adjusted free cash flow before growth to **$4.3 billion–$4.7 billion**, each with a higher midpoint than the original range.
• Initial 2027 guidance is **$7.7 billion–$8.5 billion** of adjusted EBITDA and **$4.3 billion–$5.1 billion** of adjusted free cash flow before growth; both figures include Cogentrix and the Perry nuclear plant PPA with Meta.
• Cogentrix added approximately **5,500 MW** for a net purchase price of approximately **$4 billion**. Vistra now expects high-single-digit adjusted free cash flow accretion in the near term, rising to double digits beginning in 2029.
• Demand signals were mixed by market: PJM and ERCOT set new peak-load records of approximately **168 GW** and **91 GW**, respectively, while ERCOT prices had been trending lower amid crypto-mining closures and a data-center audit and permitting pause.