XPLR Infrastructure, LP Q3 2026 Earnings Recap

XPLR shares fell 15.5% after the company placed 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the lower half of its prior guidance range and free cash flow before growth at or near the low end. Investors also face a forecast step-down in 2027 EBITDA, driven primarily by expiring tax-credit eligibility, with El Niño-related wind weakness weighing on the outlook.

Key Takeaways

• Q3 adjusted EBITDA was approximately $471 million and free cash flow before growth was $164 million. Existing projects increased year over year by $49 million in EBITDA and $24 million in free cash flow before growth.
• The 2026 outlook reflects weaker-than-expected wind and solar resource in the West, anticipated wind resource at least 3% lower for the rest of the year due to El Niño, and slightly higher expected operating and maintenance expenses.
• For the balance of 2026, management said each 1% deviation in fleet-wide wind production equates to $4 million to $6 million of adjusted EBITDA.
• 2027 guidance is $1.56 billion to $1.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $525 million to $600 million in free cash flow before growth. The expected EBITDA step-down from 2026 primarily reflects the expiration of tax-credit eligibility for certain existing assets.
• The company completed about 85% of planned 2026 repowerings and retired the remaining approximately $33 million of its 2026 unsecured notes in October.