ASML Holding N.V. Q3 2026 Earnings Recap

ASML shares fell 3.0% after earnings, suggesting investors focused on the outlook rather than the record quarter. Management raised its view of customer demand and expects a sharp Q4 sales step-up, but Q4 gross margin is guided lower than Q3, and full-year margin guidance remains around 56%.

Key Takeaways

• Q3 net sales were a record €11.7 billion; gross margin was 57.5%, above guidance, and net income was €5.0 billion, including a roughly €500 million valuation gain on ASML’s Mistral AI investment.
• Installed base management sales reached €3.3 billion, nearly €400 million above guidance, helped by demand for productivity upgrades.
• Q4 sales are forecast at €14.2–€15.2 billion, with gross margin around 57%; full-year sales guidance is €44–€45 billion and gross margin around 56%.
• ASML expects full-year sales growth of around 36%, including over 45% growth in EUV and around 50% growth in installed base management; logic system sales are expected to grow around 10%, versus around 75% for memory.
• Management said customer demand signals are strengthening and customers see demand outpacing supply through at least 2028; ASML expects to deliver roughly 65 low-NA EUV systems in 2026, nearly 50% more than in 2025.