ASML Holding N.V. Q3 2026 Earnings Recap

ASML shares fell 5.3% after earnings, despite a record quarter and higher Q4 sales guidance. The likely concern is that full-year growth is expected to be heavily driven by memory: management forecasts about 75% growth in memory system sales versus around 10% in logic, while Q4 gross margin is expected to ease to around 57% from 57.5% in Q3.

Key Takeaways

• Q3 net sales reached a record €11.7 billion; gross margin was 57.5%, and net income was €5.0 billion, including about €500 million from the higher valuation of ASML’s Mistral AI investment.
• Q4 sales are forecast at €14.2–15.2 billion, with gross margin around 57%.
• Full-year 2026 sales are expected at €44–45 billion, up around 36% year over year, with gross margin around 56%.
• Management expects 2026 EUV sales growth above 45%, non-EUV system sales growth around 20%, and installed base management sales growth around 50%.
• Q3 installed base management sales were €3.3 billion, nearly €400 million above guidance; ASML expects about €3.7 billion in Q4.