Genius Sports Limited Q3 2026 Earnings Recap

Genius Sports shares fell 14.8% despite Q3 revenue and adjusted EBITDA topping the company’s guidance. The transcript offers no explicit guidance cut or outlook warning; the likely source of investor disappointment is that the reported beat and cash-flow progress did not establish stronger forward growth, while management’s prediction-market opportunity remains largely prospective.

Key Takeaways

• Revenue was $270 million, above company guidance of $260 million; adjusted EBITDA was $87 million versus guidance of $85 million.
• Adjusted EBITDA margin was 32%, up 12 percentage points year over year. Free cash flow was $54 million, equal to 61% of adjusted EBITDA.
• Betting revenue increased 33% year over year. Management said 70%–80% of betting revenue comes from contractually fixed minimum guarantees.
• Management cited nearly 60% year-over-year growth in NFL gross gaming revenue and nearly 50% growth in in-play GGR over the first four weeks of the season; the quarter included only three NFL weeks.
• Prediction markets are a major strategic focus, but the opportunity described is still developing: Genius said it had added more than 50 customers this year and highlighted monetization across customer acquisition, trading data, and settlement.