Sirius XM Holdings Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Recap

Sirius XM shares rose 4.9% after the company raised all three 2026 financial guidance metrics by $25 million, citing performance through the first nine months. The quarter also showed improving subscription trends and higher cash flow, though management cautioned that self-pay subscriber trends may be more challenging in Q4.

Key Takeaways

• Sirius XM now expects 2026 revenue of approximately $8.55 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $2.65 billion, and free cash flow of $1.4 billion.
• Self-pay net additions were 5,000, nearly 45,000 better year-over-year and ahead of expectations; full-year self-pay net additions are now expected to be approximately flat to 2025.
• Adjusted EBITDA grew 3%, margins expanded by one percentage point, and free cash flow increased 14%.
• Advertising growth was double-digit in podcasting and programmatic. ARPU remained stable, while churn improved year-over-year.
• Management expects a more challenging fourth quarter for self-pay trends, citing the anniversary of initial Continuous Service benefits, ongoing conversion pressures, and tighter promotional acquisition discipline.