YPF Sociedad Anonima Q3 2026 Earnings Recap

YPF shares fell 4.7% after earnings, suggesting investors focused on execution and spending risks rather than the strong reported quarter. Q3 capex rose 26% year over year, while management expects upstream investment to increase in Q4 as it pursues shale growth and the VMOS startup.

Key Takeaways

• Revenue was $6.6 billion, up 41% year over year; adjusted EBITDA was $2.5 billion, up 84%, with a 38% margin.
• Shale oil production reached 224,000 bpd, up 5% sequentially and 32% year over year. YPF remains on track for 250,000 bpd by December.
• Q3 investment totaled $1.3 billion, 26% above last year; 70% went to shale. Management maintained its full-year capex target of $5.8–$6.2 billion and expects upstream investment to rise in Q4.
• Free cash flow was $901 million, the second-highest level in company history, and net leverage fell to 0.81x.
• VMOS was about 85% complete by September, with first oil exports expected early next year. The North Hub RIGI projects remain under development; management expects to submit them in the near term.